Monday, August 2, 2010

11AM Tuesday: Future uncertain for TS Colin

10AM Wednesday UPDATE:
Tropical Storm Colin falls apart

Tropical Storm Colin, which formed in the Atlantic Tuesday morning, is now just a remnant low.

Satellite pictures and analysis from the University of Wisconsin clearly show Colin is being impacted by 10 - 20 kts of wind shear. This belt of higher winds has a tendency to shred tropical systems apart and this has caused Colin to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system.

11AM Tuesday
Colin has a very ragged appearance this morning. The convective banding seen earlier has weakened...leaving a small convective mass
near the center and a second convective mass to the north. The system has turned a little to the left during the past several hours. The initial motion is 280/21...and the short-term motion may be even faster. Currently...Colin is experiencing westerly vertical shear likely caused by the lower part of the storm outrunning the upper part. This is forecast to continue for the next 24-36 hr due to the rapid motion. After that time...the system is expected to encounter increasing upper-level westerly winds caused by the western Atlantic trough. This pattern does not appear favorable for significant strengthening...and the only intensity guidance that currently calls for Colin to become a hurricane is climatology/persistence. Given the current trends and the forecast shear...the intensity forecast is a little weaker than the previous forecast...with an intensity of 45 kt through most of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that Colin could degenerate to an open wave due to a combination of its rapid motion and westerly shear.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should follow the progress of Colin.

NWS Hurricane Center Detail Page...
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